As the saying goes, we can learn new lessons
from old teachings. This paper aims to give
critical assessment of J. M. Keynes (1883-1946)
and F. H. Knight (1885-1972), two great economists
on probability and uncertainty. It is quite
remarkable to see that there are many contemporaries
of outstanding achievement in the
Keynes-Knight era: A. Marshall (1842-1924),
H. Poincaré (1854-1912), M. Weber (1864-
1920), Soseki Natsume (1867-1916), Torahiko
Terada (1878-1935), and A. Einstein (1879-
1955). While these men are somewhat different
in personality and research field, there is one
thing in common: They are all deep thinkers
of unthinkable phenomena such as bubbles,
chance, chaos, complexity, crisis, earthquakes,
hazards, and sufferings.
In the light of the history of economic
thought, we understand that some economists
may be micro-oriented or macro-oriented
whereas others may be concerned with certainty
or uncertainty. We find it quite convenient
to classify all the economists from the time of
Adam Smith to the present day into the following
four groups. They are:(1)micro and
certainty, (2)macro and certainty, (3)macro and
uncertainty, and (4)micro and uncertainty. In
my opinion, the first group is represented by L.
W. McKenzie, an authority in general equilibrium
theory and incidentally my mentor at
Rochester; and the second one by Karl Marx,
the founder of the Marxian school. The third
group is led by J. M. Keynes, perhaps the greatest
economist of the 20th century and the
originator of the Keynesian school; and the
fourth one by F.H. Knight, the grandfather of
the original Chicago school.
According to Torahiko Terada, a famous scientist
and essayist, natural disasters will return
when they are out of people’s memory. Likewise,
academic geniuses will return before old
heroes are out of our scene. At the beginning
of the 21st century, it is quite regrettable that
neither Keynes nor Knight is in sight. We need
a Keynes or a Knight in order to establish a
new, synthetic social science, thus combining
economics, psychology, history, biology, physics,
and other related fields.
引用
彦根論叢, 第400号, pp. 82-105
The Hikone Ronso, No.400, pp. 82-105
雑誌名
彦根論叢
号
第400号
ページ
82 - 105
発行年
2014-06
ISSN
0387-5989
書誌レコードID
AA1208814X
タイトル（ヨミ）
ケインズ ト ナイト ト ドウジダイジン タチ ソウテイガイ オ ソウテイ スル
その他の言語のタイトル
J.M. Keynes, F.H. Knight and their Contemporaries : Thinking of the Unthinkable
ケインズとナイトと同時代人たち : 「想定外」を想定する
酒井泰弘.pdf
(1.08MB)
