@article{oai:shiga-u.repo.nii.ac.jp:00008887,
 author = {得田, 雅章},
 issue = {第21巻},
 journal = {滋賀大学経済学部研究年報},
 month = {Nov},
 note = {Departmental Bulletin Paper, The purpose of this paper is to empirically verify the validity of the fundamentals model on
residential land prices from the view of long-run equilibrium and short-term dynamics. First, the
national panel data classified by municipal district were consolidated. Next, the equilibrium land
prices were derived by panel cointegration analysis. Finally, the error correction models were
estimated, though some were not observed in the variables required for analysis. In surveying and
data consolidation, GIS (geographic information system) was utilized for the geographical
distribution. Two versions of the aggregate land price data for every unit area were prepared the
weighted average and the arithmetic average, and these were analyzed in comparison. In various
panel estimations, the fixed effects model was adopted.
A long-run equilibrium relation was observed by our fundamentals model as the result of panel
cointegration analysis. Taxable income, expectation for future land prices, and real interest rates
greatly contributed to the formation of the long-run equilibrium land price. The short-term
fluctuation from the long-run equilibrium value appeared comparatively, notably in the municipal
districts of the major urban areas. However, it was not necessarily a government building location in
all prefectures.
Next, the composition factor of the change rate of land prices was explored from the view of shortterm
dynamics by carrying out a panel estimation of the ECM-type land price function. As a result of
examining several models, we confirmed that, even if short-term deviation occurred in both
theoretical and actual land prices, about 60 percent of the deviation width is corrected the following
year. These were in agreement with the quantitative consequence of the previous work.
Many variables used for the verification of short-term dynamics were unstable for the parameters
for each model, or its significance. They also showed only a limited degree of incidence. On the other
hand, the population variable parameter showed significant and substantial influence in every model.
In addition, the model by arithmetic average land price was supported by the weighted average land
price, with all the long-run equilibrium land price functions and the ECM-type land price functions,
including additional analysis., 滋賀大学経済学部研究年報, 第21巻, pp. 45-66},
 pages = {45--66},
 title = {不動産価格と実体経済 : 住宅地地価に関するファンダメンタルズ・モデルの妥当性},
 year = {2014}
}