This paper deals with a risk-economic analysis of nuclear power generation, a very timely yet rather neglected area in the economics profession.
As a recent issue of The Economist noticed, there are some natural disasters that may change history and the Great East Japan Earthquake
could presumably be one. The magnitude-nine earthquake and several aftershocks were followed by big tsunamis which wiped out whole towns, and unfortunately by nuclear meltdowns. The economic and psychological consequences of Japan’s catastrophe were so grave and wide-spread, thus calling for careful reexamination of the economics of risk and uncertainty. In historical perspective, the concept of risk is old and new. In old days, the phrase such as “earthquake, thunder, fire, and angry father” represented the most fearful items in people’s mind. In modern times, however, men became more concerned about a series of new items “radioactivity, global warming, pollution, and AIDS.” It is Daniel Bernoulli, a mathematical genius of the 18th century, who first introduced the expected utility theory into people’s decision making under risk. Although a great deal of applications have been done in many areas since then, I believe that the most recent nuclear meltdown of Japan casted serious doubt over the general validity of existing risk theories. It is high time for us to establish a new comprehensive
approach by taking account of psychological, sociological, cultural, and historical factors.
引用
彦根論叢, 第390号, pp. 92-117
The Hikone Ronso, No.390, pp. 92-117
雑誌名
彦根論叢
号
第390号
ページ
92 - 117
発行年
2011-12
ISSN
0387-5989
書誌レコードID
AN00207196
タイトル（ヨミ）
ゲンパツ ノ リスク ケイザイ ブンセキ アンゼンシンワ カラ ソウテイガイ ノ ジショウ マデ
その他の言語のタイトル
A Risk-Economic Analysis of Nuclear Power Generation : From “the Myth of Absolute Safety” to “the Occurrence of Unthinkable Events”
原発のリスク経済分析 : 「安全神話」から「想定外の事象」まで
06酒井泰弘.pdf
(3.38MB)
