The purpose of this paper is to discuss and compare two giants in the history of
economic thought, J.M. Keynes and F.H. Knight, with special reference to risk,
probability, and uncertainty.
It is in 1921 that both of them published apparently published similar books on
the economics of risk and uncertainty. While Knight's contribution on risk and
uncertainty is now well recognized, Keynes's accomplishments on probability and
uncertainty have been rather ignored in the shadow of his most famous book The
General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936). This paper aims to focus
on his earlier yet equally important book A Treatise on Probability (1921), and shed a
new light on his outstanding ideas and everlasting influences on his later work
including The General Theory. It is really interesting to see that Keynes's concept of
probability and uncertainty can be well compared to Knight's distinction between a
measurable risk and a non-measurable uncertainty.
引用
CRR Discussion Paper, Series A, No. A-15, pp. 1-28
J. M. Keynes and F. H. Knight : How to Deal with Risk, Probability and Uncertainty
DPA15_p.1-28 酒井泰弘.pdf
(867.52KB)
